A larger tax return? Here’s what The White House is saying
By Easton Martin | January 27, 2026
As Americans begin filing their 2025 tax returns, the Trump administration is highlighting what they describe as the largest tax refund season in United States history. Officials and outside analysts point to significant changes in tax law enacted in 2025 that are expected to drive larger refunds for many taxpayers in 2026.
Central to the surge is the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and related Working Families Tax Cuts that expanded deductions, raised tax credits, and increased the standard deduction. These provisions retroactively reduced many taxpayers’ liabilities for the 2025 tax year. Because IRS withholding tables were slow to reflect the new tax rules, employers often withheld based on outdated rates, meaning many workers paid more tax during the year than they ultimately owed. That excess now returns as bigger refunds.
Economic estimates suggest average refunds could rise by several hundred to more than a thousand dollars compared with last year for many filers, especially those with children or qualifying wage income. Middle-income households in higher-tax states stand to benefit notably from expanded deductions for state and local taxes, tip income, and overtime pay.
