The “Dan Sullivan” trick in Alaska may backfire, but time will tell
By Easton Martin
The Alaska Senate race has become one of the most unusual political contests of the 2026 midterm elections. Democrat Mary Peltola currently holds a narrow lead over Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan, but the state’s ranked-choice voting system could ultimately deliver a victory to the Republican. Preliminary analysis of the available ballot data gives Sullivan a slight advantage after ranked-choice transfers, suggesting that the incumbent may be better positioned than the initial results indicate.
The controversy began when a second candidate named Dan Sullivan entered the race. Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired schoolteacher from Petersburg, ran as a Republican and appeared on the ballot alongside the incumbent Dan S. Sullivan. The nearly identical names created an obvious opportunity for voter confusion, particularly among people who recognized the incumbent’s name but did not carefully examine the ballot.
The circumstances surrounding the second Sullivan’s candidacy became even more controversial following reporting by The New York Times. The newspaper reported that people connected to Democratic political organizations had explored recruiting candidates who could draw votes away from the incumbent. The effort reportedly involved finding candidates whose names could create confusion among voters. Peltola’s campaign has denied involvement in recruiting the second Sullivan.
The strategy may have produced the initial result Democrats wanted. Peltola currently leads Sullivan by approximately 637 votes, while the second Sullivan has collected thousands of first-choice votes. However, Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system makes those initial numbers considerably less decisive.
When Daniel J. Sullivan is eliminated, his ballots transfer according to each voter’s next-ranked preference. Those votes do not automatically go to the incumbent simply because both candidates share a name. Preliminary ballot analysis shows that some of the second Sullivan’s voters preferred Peltola, while others preferred the incumbent. Meanwhile, Republican Gerald Heikes’ voters appear considerably more likely to favor Dan Sullivan when their ballots transfer.
That distinction could determine the election. FairVote’s preliminary analysis found that Sullivan would defeat Peltola by approximately 51 percent to 49 percent after ranked-choice transfers among the ballots included in its analysis. An additional analysis of the ballot data by Alaska News also found that Sullivan could move ahead after transfers, despite trailing in the initial count.
There is still a substantial number of outstanding ballots, and the final outcome remains uncertain. Late-arriving ballots have historically favored Democrats in Alaska, which could help Peltola overcome the incumbent’s preliminary advantage in the ranked-choice analysis. Nevertheless, the available evidence suggests Sullivan has a legitimate path to victory and may currently hold a slight advantage once voter preferences are considered.
The final ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for November 18. Until then, neither campaign can reasonably declare victory.
