Prop 50 in California is poised to flip red seats blue: will it pass?

The California ballot measure will be voted on this week, and could eliminate several Republican-held congressional seats in the Golden State

Analysis by Summer Lane | November 3, 2025

Election Day is upon the nation yet again, and while the presidential election of 2024 is in the rearview mirror, a handful of key elections are unfolding in several states, like New Jersey and Virginia – but all eyes will certainly be on California as the state will decide whether to pass a congressionally-pivotal ballot measure.

Proposition 50 in California is a Democrat-backed measure that would authorize a temporary change to the congressional district maps in the Golden State. This comes as a direct politically retributive response to Texas’s recent move to pass legislation redistricting its maps in favor of Republican voting demographics.

Prop 50 would require temporary redistricting until 2030 (the U.S. Census), with redrawn maps starting in 2026 – just in time to affect the midterm elections next year.

Why are Democrats so intent on ensuring this proposition passes? Simply put, it is poised to flip several Republican-held congressional seats blue by concentrating Democratic voters in redrawn district zones.

A partisan response

This summer, Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott signed legislation authorizing congressional redistricting in the Lone Star State that could yield up to five new GOP seats in the 2026 midterm elections.

This spurred a hardline response from Democrats in deep blue California, who have decided to fight political fire with fire by doing the same. Proposition 50 stands to possibly flip five Republican-held seats blue in 2026 if the measure passes, including the seat of popular Republican Congressman Kevin Kiley (Calif.).

If the proposition passes, it effectively nets zero majority seats for either Republicans or Democrats, unless Republicans gain more seats in other state congressional races in 2026.

Gerrymandering and Democrats’ bid for power

While Proposition 50 doesn’t necessarily guarantee that the Democrats will earn a majority in the House in 2026, it does set an alarming precedent – one that was, in all fairness, set by Texas Republicans earlier this year by passing legislation on redistricting. Democrats are simply responding, which should be expected.

This all amounts to a political game of gerrymandering – the purposeful manipulation of an electoral district boundary to benefit one political party over the other.

Will the measure pass? If it does, it puts Democrats on an even playing field with Republicans. If it doesn’t pass, Republicans may have a five-seat advantage heading into next year’s midterm elections.

“I’m honored Governor Newsom has called an entire Special Election to gerrymander my district, just as I was honored when he sent his own staff member to run against me last year,” said Rep. Kiley in a Sunday X statement.

He added, “We beat him by 46,000 votes then, and this latest attempt to stop our movement will fail as well.”

Will the measure pass?

Whether Prop 50 will pass remains to be seen. California is a massive state, and there are no voter ID requirements for casting a ballot under Democrat Governor Newsom’s leadership. There are also at least 2.3 million illegal migrants living in California, according to Pew Research.

Additionally, Gov. Newsom signed legislation in 2021 making vote-by-mail ballots mandatory in the state of California. This means every voter in California receives a ballot automatically in the mail.

All of this seems to suggest that the election system in California may be less-than-secure – but the topic of election security in the Golden State can be a contentious one.

Bloomberg has already anticipated public distrust in California’s upcoming election results with this headline: “If California’s Prop 50 Passes, Expect Claims of Voter Fraud.”

But according to the Public Policy Institute of California, 56 percent of likely voters said they would vote yes on Prop 50. However, most of this support is concentrated in the coastal regions (Democrat urban areas), while there is less support in the inland regions (rural agricultural areas, which tend to be Republican-leaning), per their data.

There is a good chance that this proposition will pass on Tuesday, although there is no guarantee for Democrats either way.

If it does pass, Republicans in the House should be ready to focus on flipping other blue seats in other key states in the sparse 12 months they have before next year’s critical midterms.

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