Republican Sheriff Chad Bianco takes early lead in California gubernatorial race: polls
In a surprising twist, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco has taken an early lead in the 2026 gubernatorial race in California, polling shows
by Summer Lane | November 7, 2025
A Republican has taken the lead in California’s gubernatorial race, perhaps hinting at future hope for the GOP in the Golden State amid Democrat Governor Newsom’s ironclad political reign.
According to a new poll from UC Berkeley, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco has pulled ahead with Californians, with 13 percent of support against former Democrat Congresswoman Katie Porter’s 11 percent.
This is a significant development in deep-blue California, where voters are currently perusing a slate of candidates one year out from the gubernatorial election.
Another Republican in the race – political commentator Steve Hilton – is tied with Xavier Becerra (the former Health and Human Services Secretary) at 8 percent of support, according to Berkeley’s data.
Currently, 44 percent of voters are undecided about whom to vote for next year. Clearly, a lot could change between now and next November, but a Republican taking an early lead is a surprising sign.
Yet another poll from Ben Tulchin found that Bianco had 20 percent of the potential vote compared to former Los Angeles Mayor Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa’s 19 percent. In that poll, Hilton held 18 percent of support, and Porter held 15 percent.
These numbers are quite different than Berkeley’s data, which showed Villaraigosa in dead last with five percent of the vote.
The commonality between these two surveys, however, is that Bianco leads the pack. And, if Hilton were to drop out of the race at some point, it is likely that the Republican support for Hilton’s campaign – support that is currently split between two candidates – may swing to Bianco and therefore give him a broader advantage.
A third poll from Tavern Research (an internal Becerra poll), further showed Bianco in the lead ahead of Katie Porter, at 16 percent to her 15 percent. Hilton held third place in that poll with 12 percent.
Sheriff Bianco is a well-known figure in California. In 2024, he made waves when he openly endorsed President Donald Trump’s presidential campaign.
Photo: Contributed/Scott Brandt
