President Trump vs China: Who’s really winning?
By Easton Martin | October 30, 2025
The balance of power in the U.S.–China trade war shifted this week, and it shifted in Washington’s favor. President Trump’s summit in Seoul produced what many in both capitals are calling a decisive American win that reshapes the global trade landscape and underscores the strength of U.S. economic leverage.
After months of tense negotiations, China agreed to fully lift restrictions on rare earth mineral exports to the United States for an entire year, granting unrestricted access to the materials that power American technology, electric vehicles, and defense systems. In return, Washington agreed to a modest tariff cut, lowering average duties on Chinese imports from 57% to 47%. The reduction eases some trade friction but leaves in place a level of pressure that continues to weigh heavily on Beijing’s exporters.
The deal also delivers tangible gains for U.S. farmers. China has expanded its market access for American soybeans, a key demand from the White House, and committed to a strengthened crackdown on the production and export of illicit fentanyl precursors. Trump hailed the outcome as “twelve out of ten,” a characteristic flourish that reflects the scale of the win from his administration’s perspective.
Economic data appears to validate that assessment. U.S. imports from China have fallen by roughly one-third over the past year, with the monthly trade deficit narrowing from nearly $18 billion in March to under $10 billion by June. Domestic growth remains robust at more than 3 percent, and financial markets responded with a surge following the announcement of the deal.
Beijing’s picture is less encouraging. China’s economy continues to struggle under the weight of deflationary pressure and a collapsing property market, with third-quarter growth slowing to 4.8 percent. The threat of expanded American tariffs, which Trump had floated as high as 157 percent, left Chinese negotiators with limited room to maneuver.
