What control does Iran have over the Strait?

By Easton Martin

Iranian political adviser Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr stated Thursday that Iranian forces will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu leave office. Zolghadr appears to be framing the move as payback for joint military strikes against Iran earlier this year.

The demand sets a condition Iran cannot enforce, and it hides the fact that Tehran has lost real grip over the waterway.

Iran sits along the northern edge of the strait, where it runs coastal missile sites, drone launch pads, and naval bases at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. Over recent months, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired on commercial tankers and placed sea mines to scare off shipping traffic.

These actions do not mean Iran controls the area. Following targeted strikes on Iranian military sites and ships, the United States Navy broke Tehran’s grip on the passage.

American mine-clearing teams removed dozens of Iranian explosives from the shipping lanes, and military escorts now guard commercial tankers as they move through.

President Trump stated this week that oil continues to flow through Hormuz under American naval protection.

While Iranian attacks drive up shipping insurance rates and force vessels to move carefully, Tehran does not have the ships or air defenses needed to shut down the strait against the United States military.