Who will the 2028 GOP frontrunner be? Polls suggest a sizable shift
By Easton Martin | July 24, 2026
As Republican voters look toward the 2028 presidential contest, early polling suggests a field centered around two key members of the administration. A new survey from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center shows Vice President JD Vance maintaining a lead among primary voters in the Granite State, though Secretary of State Marco Rubio has closed significant ground.
The poll reveals that Vance leads the 2028 GOP primary field in New Hampshire with 36 percent of the vote. Rubio follows ten percentage points behind at 26 percent. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley tied for third place with 8 percent each, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 6 percent, former Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard at 4 percent, and Louisiana Senator John Kennedy at 2 percent.
The polls have shifted since February, when the same poll showed Vance commanding more than 50 percent of Republican support while Rubio held just 7 percent.
The gap between the two frontrunners has narrowed as the Trump administration’s foreign policy is being tested. Rubio has assumed a prominent role advocating a hawkish stance toward Iran, while Vance has served as a central figure in negotiating the US-Iran memorandum of understanding aimed at pausing hostilities.
