Who will Trump endorse in Texas? The controversial runoff decision
By Easton Martin | March 4, 2026
The political landscape in Texas is currently defined by a high-stakes waiting game as Donald Trump weighs his options for an endorsement between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton.
This decision for Trump doesn’t appear to be merely about personal loyalty, but is perhaps a calculated move that involves legislative leverage and long-term party control.
Cornyn represents the old guard, often dismissed by the MAGA base as a RINO who prioritizes institutional stability. On the other hand, Paxton is viewed as a political fighter who has remained steadfastly loyal to the former president through numerous legal and political battles. However, Paxton carries significant baggage that makes him a risky bet for a general election, even in a red state like Texas.
There is a distinct possibility that Trump uses Cornyn as a strategic bartering chip. By backing Cornyn, he could potentially secure concessions on the SAVE Act, a priority for his administration. Yet, the current friction with leaders like John Thune suggests that such a deal is far from guaranteed. Thune’s resistance indicates that the Senate leadership is not yet ready to bend to these demands, creating a bottleneck for Trump’s legislative agenda.
In terms of polling, Paxton remains a favorite among the most active primary voters who value true conservative values. Cornyn usually performs better with moderate and independent voters who are wary of Paxton’s legal history. Ultimately, the choice comes down to whether Trump values a reliable soldier in Paxton or a transactional ally in Cornyn to push through his specific policy goals.
