August primary races to watch that will set the stage for November midterm elections

There is still a slate of primary elections poised to take place as the nation enters the final stretch leading into the November 2026 general elections. The outcome of these key August primaries will shape the landscape of the races this fall, and determine which major party nets majorities in Congress.

Analysis by Summer Lane | August 10, 2026

With just three months to go until the November midterm elections, it remains to be seen whether Republicans will maintain their majority in both the Senate and the House, or whether Democrats will retake one or both chambers of Congress.

But it’s not just Senate and House races that are important to watch this year: there are also a handful of governor’s races that will determine the topline leadership in key states like Florida and Minnesota.

Last week, primary elections in Tennessee yielded big wins for President Trump’s endorsed candidates, along with a win for Tennessee Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn, who won the Republican gubernatorial primary and therefore snagged the president’s coveted endorsement as she heads to the general.

The president also saw the victory of his endorsed candidate for Michigan governor – current Republican Rep. John James, who is now headed to November, as well.

In the coming days, there will be several important primary races to watch. The results will shape the landscape of the general elections this year.

Florida: August 18

The Sunshine State is facing the departure of popular Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in January, as he will be terming out. Running to replace him is current Republican Rep. Byron Donalds, a tight Trump ally (who already has the president’s endorsement). Donalds faces Republican James Fishback and former Florida State Rep. Paul Renner in this primary race.

Minnesota: August 11

Minnesota has faced serious scrutiny under the leadership of embattled Democrat Gov. Tim Walz. He announced his decision to drop out of the gubernatorial election in January amid glaring statewide fraud scandals uncovered by independent journalism and the Trump administration.

This has left the field wide open for political change.

The crowded primary for Republicans in the gubernatorial race includes Minnesota native and MyPillow founder Mike Lindell.

Lindell has also been endorsed by President Donald Trump.

Democrats are mostly rallying behind Sen. Amy Klobuchar. There is also a key Senate race to watch (Sen. Tina Smith) and a House race in District 2.

Alaska: August 18

The great state of Alaska will have an important Senate race this year. According to NBC, the Democrat contender will likely go head-to-head after this primary with Sen. Dan Sullivan, the Republican incumbent from the state.

Alaska will also hold a gubernatorial primary on August 18. Current Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy is terming out. Via the Anchorage Daily News, a whopping 17 candidates are vying for a chance to advance to the November general election amid the state’s open primary model.

Wyoming: August 18

It’s no secret that Trump-endorsed Republican Rep. Harriet Hageman of Wyoming is the favorite to likely win the primary for a Senate seat. On the Democrat side are two major candidates: Billy Benavidez and James Byrd.

Other races to note

California’s open primary election for governor was held in June. However, a special House election will be held on August 18 for Congressional District 14 – the seat vacated by former Democrat Rep. Eric Swalwell, who resigned from Congress following allegations of sexual assault.

The race for his seat is safely Democrat-dominated, between State Sen. Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez, the former mayor of Dublin in the San Francisco region, FOX KTVU reported.

The special election in August will determine who finishes out Swalwell’s term (which ends in January). The midterm election will further determine who will fill the seat for a full term, which would start in January and last for two years.

There is also a gubernatorial race in Wisconsin to watch, in which President Trump has endorsed Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany.

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