Massive refund checks coming your way? 2026 tax filings may help assuage economic hurt

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this week that next year’s tax refunds could be bigger than ever, thanks to the administration’s work on taxes, regulations, and the economy

by Summer Lane | December 12, 2025

Next year’s tax refunds may be bigger and better than ever, thanks to the Trump administration’s hard work to assuage lingering Biden-era economic wounds, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

As 2025 comes to a close, next year’s tax filers may benefit from the “One Big Beautiful Bill” that President Trump signed into law this summer, which will eliminate taxes on tips, Social Security, and overtime starting in 2026.

This week, Secretary Bessent told reporters in Pennsylvania that because the OBBB was passed in July, Americans hadn’t yet done the paperwork to adjust their withholdings – something that may benefit them next spring.

“Working Americans didn’t change their withholdings, so they’re going to be getting very large refunds in the first quarter, so I think we’re going to see $100-150 billion in refunds, which could be between $1,000-2000 per household,” Bessent remarked.

He continued, “Then they’ll change their withholding, and they’ll get a real increase in their wages.”

In November, the House Ways and Means Committee estimated that tax filers could see an additional $1,000 to their tax refunds in 2026, describing such a possibility as a “record-breaking tax refund season.”

“Millions of Americans will see the working families tax cuts put more money in their pockets when they file taxes this coming spring. In our tax relief bill, Republicans wasted no time and ensured that we cut taxes on income earned this year. Americans voted to have more money in their wallet, and that’s exactly what President Trump and Republicans delivered,” said Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith, R-Mo.

The committee projected the possibility of $91 billion in refunds and an additional $30 billion in their paychecks.

Secretary Bessent also noted in his comments this week that energy prices and gasoline prices had dropped significantly. “I think we’re on a very good track on inflation,” he said, emphasizing the administration’s work to bring it down.

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