Prediction Markets Now Favor Talarico Over Paxton. Should Texas Republicans Be Worried?
By Easton Martin | August 21, 2026
We should not be ready to say Texas is turning blue, but it is time that Republicans start paying attention.
Prediction markets have now moved slightly in favor of Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico over Republican nominee Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Senate race. Kalshi currently gives Talarico roughly a 51% chance of winning compared with 49% for Paxton, while Polymarket has Talarico at about 52% and Paxton at 49%.
Those numbers are hardly a landslide, they essentially describe a toss-up. Still, seeing a Democrat favored in a Texas Senate race should get the attention of anyone who remembers how reliably Republican Texas has been in statewide elections.
We also should not treat prediction markets as political crystal balls. They measure what traders currently believe, and those beliefs can change quickly as new advertising, fundraising and political events enter the picture. In fact, Kalshi had Paxton slightly ahead earlier this month before the market tightened and eventually moved toward Talarico.
Recent polling has shown Talarico with a narrow advantage, and his campaign has built a significant financial edge. Kalshi currently lists Talarico with roughly $68.6 million raised compared with about $9.2 million for Paxton. Reuters has also reported that election betting activity has exploded ahead of the midterms, meaning these markets are attracting substantially more attention and money than they did in previous election cycles.
The Republican Party is clearly beginning to recognize the problem. A super PAC linked to Sen. Ted Cruz has launched a $1.7 million advertising campaign supporting Paxton, while President Trump is expected to headline a fundraiser for him later this month.
Republicans should be concerned, but not necessarily panicked. Texas is still Texas after all. President Trump carried the state by nearly 14 points in 2024. A Democrat winning statewide would therefore be a major political upheaval, not simply another close Senate race.
At the same time, Republicans should not make the mistake of assuming that Texas’ Republican identity will automatically carry any Republican candidate across the finish line. Paxton comes into the general election with years of controversy surrounding him, while Talarico has successfully presented himself as a younger, more polished Democratic candidate who can compete in parts of the state where Democrats have struggled.
