How Ken Paxton (and conservatives as a whole) can win their races this year

By Easton Martin | May 28, 2026

The general election matchup is officially set in Texas for the Senate race, and the political landscape presents a unique challenge for the Republican nominee. While Texas remains staunchly conservative, Paxton’s polling numbers against Talarico are too close for comfort. Yes, these polls are far from the whole picture, but remember, Beto defeated Cruz in the 2018 Senate race by a mere 200k votes. That isn’t exactly a comforting margin in a state that is supposed to be heavily conservative, and not to mention is being overrun with H1-B foreigners, That being said, this race is Ken Paxton’s to lose. His fate is firmly in the hands of himself and his campaign, and it is entirely winnable.

No matter what the polling indicates, Ken Paxton will likely struggle to replicate Trump’s raw numbers in Texas. This discrepancy stems from two distinct factors. First, a presidential cycle naturally commands a higher level of voter attention and turnout. Second, and perhaps more critically, Paxton carries significant political baggage. It is no secret that his public scandals threaten to alienate a segment of the electorate. While Trump has navigated his own share of controversies, he maintains a polarizing appeal driven by personality, cultural dominance, and an innate ability to command public attention. Paxton does not possess that same nationwide draw, meaning this race requires a distinct strategic pivot to secure the base.

​The path to victory relies on mobilizing a specific, hesitant demographic. Texas is still home to a substantial base of traditional, establishment Republicans who supported figures like John Cornyn. These are self-proclaimed principled, conservative voters who value institutional decorum, and Paxton must actively win them over. This is especially true given the risk that some of these voters might support Talarico out of spite or conviction.

​To bridge this gap, the campaign must effectively speak to these voters by weaponizing Talarico’s own progressive policy positions and past statements against him. The central question for the electorate is clear: will Texas elect a candidate who argued on the legislative record that modern science recognizes six biological sexes? The answer is only yes if the alternative choice is perceived as more radical.

​Therefore, the objective is to appeal directly to the conservative value of common sense. The campaign must frame the choice so that the nominee is viewed as the level-headed, stable option, while his opponent is cast as an ideological progressive whose views are out of touch with mainstream Texas values.

​Achieving this does not require complex policy debates; it simply requires letting the opponent do the talking. By flooding the airwaves with the public statements Talarico has made over the past five years, the contrast will define itself. These progressive positions do not appeal to the average Texan outside of urban liberal hubs. Most voters in the state reject proposals that alter traditional understandings of biology and childhood. 

This race remains fundamentally winnable, provided the campaign successfully informs the electorate that the conservative platform represents normalcy and stability, while the progressive alternative is radical and dangerous.